Probability is the basic need of communication in
Engineering, we discuss all possibilities
That can take place.
Basically, it tells about chances of any outcome can take place.
All software, we make use all possibilities and their
chances of favour and against.
In the cases where sample space is very small, we normally
use favourable outcomes over total outcomes but when sample space is very
large, we can’t make it manually, we are dependent on binomial, poisson and
normal distribution. When p(SUCCESS) is intermediate in size and n(no. Of
outcomes) is large, we use binomial distribution and when p is very small and n
is very large, we use poisson distribution.
Probability is a way that many people understand basically.
Since words like “proportion”, “likelihood”, “chance” and “possibility” are
used in everyday speech. Following are the examples of fact statements of
probability which might be heard in any of the business situation: -
1)There is a 30% chance of this job not to be finished in
time.
2)There is every likelihood that the business will be making
a great profit the following year.
The concept of probability is really very important. It has
discovered a very extensive application in the development of every physical
science. Sometimes a person explains without actually discussing probability.
The probability is a way which mainly measures the degree of uncertainty and
therefore of certainty of the occurring of events.
There are some situation for all of you doing communication
subjects in branches ECE, CSE,IT
They all must practice of following questions
Daily life situation
1. Suppose that the reliability of a HIV test in specified
as follows:
Of people having HIV, 90% of the test detect the disease but
10% go undetected. Of people free of HIV, 90% of the test are judged HIV –ve
but 1% are diagnosed as showing HIV +ve. From a large population of which only
0.1% have HIV, one person is selected at random, given the HIV test, and the
pathologist reports him/her as HIV +ve. What is the probability that the person
actually has HIV ?
2. A doctor from panipat is to visit a patient. From the
past experience, it is known that the probability that he will come by train,
bus, scooter or by other means of transport, are respectively The probabilities that he will be late are , if he comes by train, bus and scooter
respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be
late. When he arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he comes train?
3. Shakuni mama is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He
throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is
actually a six.
4. Lal path lab panipat blood test is 99% effective in
detecting a certain disease when it is in fact, present. However, the test also
yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (i.e., if
a healthy person is tested, then with probability 0.005, the test will imply he
has the disease). If 0.1 per cent of the population actually has the disease,
what is the probability that a person has the disease given that his test is
positive?
5. Assume that the chances of a patient having a corona is
40%. It is also assumed that a meditation and yoga course reduce the risk of
heart attack by 30% and prescription of certain drug reduces its chances by
25%. At a time, a patient can choose any one of the two option with equal
probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options the
patient selected at random suffers a corona. Find the probability that the
patient followed a course of meditation and yoga?
6. In answering a question on a MCQ test with 4 choices per
question, a student of GEETA ENGG COLLEGE PANIPAT knows the answer, guesses or
copies the answer. Let be the
probability that he knows the answer,
be the probability that he quesses and
that he copies it. Assuming that a student, who copies the answer, will
be correct with the probability , what
is the probability that the student knows the answer, given that he answered it
correctly?
IN ALL ABOVE CASES WE ARE ONLY DEPENDENT ON PROBABILITY
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